The Unity Labour Party (ULP) may be on its way to accomplishing its mantra, “five inna row.”
According to an analysis by Peter Wickham, head of the Barbados-based Caribbean Development Research Services (CADRES), a wind of change seems unlikely.
Wickham called in to the WakeUpCall and spoke with Tha Fugitive on Tuesday (Nov. 3) morning about the upcoming general elections.
The Pollster confirmed that CADRES has conducted a poll for the November 5, 2020 election, however, he was unable to thoroughly examine the results.
THA FUGITIVE: “Some people are of the opinion that there is a wind of change sweeping across the nation. People are claiming that the tension that is on the ground right now is speaking toward a change of government here in St. Vincent and the Grenadines. How would you respond to that?”
WICKHAM: “I would say that suggestion of a wind of change is not consistent with what I’m seeing. I do feel that there is a perception across the island that perhaps they’ve had Labour for enough time, but the idea of a wind of change is not something that I am seeing in terms of polls that we are doing.”
THA FUGITIVE: “What are the chances of a swing in favour of the opposition?”
WICKHAM: “Well let’s put it this way, you can have swing in favour of the opposition, the question is, would it be a large enough swing to be able to remove the government?”
Wickham explained that St. Vincent and the Grenadines is in a peculiar situation.
“St. Vincent and the Grenadines is in an odd situation politically on a fifth term. Because you’re looking at a fifth term but the situation is very peculiar, it’s unique in that regard. If you were to have a change of government in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, you need to have a swing that approaches or exceeds 5 percentage point, and I can tell you that I am not seeing that, I am not seeing that personally, but at the same time, I guess it can happen”
The CADRES Director noted that St. Vincent and the Grenadines’ 2020 general elections is a historic one.
“It is historic, it’s a historic election. You have not ever had a prime minister in the Caribbean that has been around for as long as this… five terms.”
He continued, “If the prime minister makes it, he enters a unique category of leaders that have been able to be re-elected four times. The only other leaders that are in that category would be Denzil Douglas of St. Kitts and of course his young colleague over in Dominica, Prime minister Skerrit. But generally speaking, it is a very exclusive club and I do think though, however that the conditions currently do favour him entering that club, that would be my professional assessment.”